Bitcoin is flashing a dangerous 2022 echo after the Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike, lifting its benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00%. The market is already pricing more tightening.

  • Bitcoin sits roughly 40% below its October high near $126,000.
  • After the March 2022 hike, BTC rallied 18% in 12 days before plunging about 50%.
  • Traders expect another 75 bps of tightening over the next six months, with oil threatening inflation progress.

LaunchBar’s take: a relief pump could be the trap, not the bottom. Watch liquidity and risk assets closely; aggressive longs should demand confirmation, while dips may offer better entries only after the Fed path cools.